Ogumoshabe Disan defends his Master Thesis

  • Date:
  • Location: Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 1 Å74118, Ångströmlaboratoriet, Lägerhyddsvägen 1, Uppsala
  • Lecturer: Ogumoshabe Disan
  • Organiser: Rolf
  • Contact person: Rolf Larsson
  • Seminarium

Title: Time Series Analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden.


First COVID-19 case in Sweden was confirmed on January 31, 2020; a woman in her
20’s returning from Wuhan, China on January 24, 2020. Today, Sweden has recorded
1,534,797 positive cases and 15,482 fatalities by January 17, 2022 as provided by Swedish
health Agency [1].
This thesis will therefore look at analysis of Time Series of COVID-19 positive cases
and hospitalized cases for 2020, week 20 until 2021, week 48 in Sweden. R-plots will be
analyzed from the time series plots, Autocorrelation function (ACF) and Partial Auto-
correlation function (PACF) plots to clearly tell the trend for the pandemic in the two
This will lead to analysis of differenced series and ACF and PACF residuals as well. Also,
the thesis studies the time series diagonistics and the analysis will help in finding if it is
an ARIMA or SARIMA Model.
Furthermore, we shall study the transfer function model and also look at forecasting the
trend of the global pandemic.